外商在华直接投资与中美贸易平衡问题被引量：25

On the Issues between FDI in China and Sino-U. S. Trade Balance

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摘要文章研究发现:(1)中国对外商品出口、从外商品进口分别与外商在华直接投资之间没有稳定的协整关系,但是存在有外商在华直接投资变动到中国对外贸易(出口、进口)发展变动的单向因果关系。(2)在95%置信水平下中国对美商品出口、对美贸易顺差分别与外商在华直接投资之间存在有双向影响关系,这与依据美国统计的月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。(3)外商在华投资企业和中资企业共同生产和出口美国必需的劳动密集型、资本密集和技术成熟型产品。美中贸易逆差属于互补性商品贸易逆差,已超越中美两国贸易范围,很大程度上是由外商在华直接投资包括美国在华直接投资所产生的贸易逆差转移和贸易替代效应造成的。 On the issues between FDI in China and Sino-U. S. trade balance, my findings show that firstly, there are no stable cointegrating relationships between China＇s foreign trade （exports and imports） and FDI in China respectivly. However, there is unidirectional Granger causality from the change of FDI in China to the fluctuations of China＇s foreign trade （exports and imports）. Secondly, there are bidirectional effects between China＇s exports to ＆ trade surplus with the U. S and FDI in China at 95% level. The conclusion is consistent with that from U. S Census Bureau monthly data. Thirdly, foreign-funded and Chinese enterprises altogether produce and export labor-intensive, capital-intensive and tech-mature products required for the U.S.U.S. -China trade deficit belongs to complementary goods deficit, which is beyond Sino-U. S trade and is caused by trade deficit shift and substitution effect from FDI including U. S. multinationals in China to a large extend.

作者沈国兵

机构地区上海财经大学金融学院

出处《财经研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2005年第9期80-91,共12页 Journal of Finance and Economics

基金国家社会科学基金项目(04CJY021)中国博士后科学基金项目(No.35)

关键词外商直接投资外商投资企业中美双边贸易贸易逆差转移贸易替代效应 foreign direct investment foreign-funded enterprises U. S. China bilateral trade trade deficit shift trade substitution effect

分类号 F742 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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参考文献9

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二级参考文献21

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