摘要
文章在跨期最优消费理论基础上,以平均消费倾向作为居民消费行为评价指标,建立分析人口老龄化与平均消费倾向关系的理论模型和计量模型,对2001～2008年中国城镇居民消费行为进行了实证研究。结果表明,人口老龄化因素显著影响中国城镇居民消费行为,在控制其他因素的条件下,老年人口抚养比越高,城镇居民平均消费倾向越高;少儿人口抚养比对城镇居民消费影响不显著,可能是家庭未成年人抚养总支出对抚养数量弹性较小。研究还发现,消费习惯是近年来城镇居民平均消费倾向下降的原因之一。
Based on the inter-temporal optimizing model,with the average consumption propensity as the evaluation index of household consumption behavior,the paper introduces the factor of population age structure,builds a theory and econometrics model to analyze the relationship between population aging and the average consumption propensity,and conducts an empirical research on urban households using panel data from Chinese provinces in the period of 2001 to 2008.It concludes that the factor of population aging has a significant effect on Chinese urban households' consumption behavior.The higher the old dependency ratio,the higher the average consumption propensity.The youth dependency ratio has no significant effect on the average propensity of urban household consumption.The possible cause is that the elasticity of total expenditure on minor support is small.In addition,the consumption habit is one of significant causes which make the urban household consumption propensity declining in recent years.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期64-73,112,共10页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
