摘要
探讨人口结构对居民消费的影响是畅通经济内循环的重要维度。本文利用1990-2018年的省际面板数据分析了人口结构对居民消费水平的影响机制,以及人口结构因经济发展水平差异对居民消费产生的动态门限效应,研究发现:(1)少儿抚养比和城镇化水平提高会增加居民消费,老年抚养比、性别比和家庭规模提高会抑制居民消费,经济发展会缓解老龄化带来的消费水平下降,人口性别比对居民消费的抑制作用较小,且随经济发展变化较小;(2)以经济发展为门限变量时,各人口结构的门限值较为接近,年龄结构、家庭规模和城镇化在经济发展达到阈值后对居民消费水平的影响会产生较为明显的非线性突变,消费的"棘轮效应"使得居民的消费具有较强的惯性作用。基于研究结论,本文提出了重视老年群体消费潜力、提高人口出生率和提高城镇化水平等促进消费内循环的政策措施。
To explore the impact of population structure on Residents’consumption is an important dimension to unblock the internal circulation of economy.Using the inter provincial panel data from 1990 to 2018,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of population structure on Residents’consumption level and the dynamic threshold effect of population structure on Residents’consumption due to the difference of economic development level.The research finds that:(1)The increase of children’s dependency ratio and urbanization level will increase residents’consumption,the increase of elderly dependency ratio,gender ratio and family size will inhibit residents’consumption,economic development will alleviate the decline of consumption level caused by aging,and the inhibition effect of population gender ratio on Residents’consumption is small,and changes little with economic development.(2)When economic development is taken as the threshold variable,the threshold values of various population structures are relatively close.After economic development reaches the threshold,the impact of age structure,family size and urbanization on Residents’consumption level will have an obvious nonlinear mutation.The"ratchet effect"of consumption makes residents’consumption have a strong inertial effect.Based on the research conclusion,this paper puts forward some policies and measures to promote the internal circulation of consumption,such as paying attention to the consumption potential of the elderly group,improving the birth rate and improving the level of urbanization.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2021年第7期83-86,165,共5页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
人口结构
动态面板门限模型
消费内循环
棘轮效应
population structure
dynamic panel threshold model
consumption internal circulation
ratchet effect
