摘要
采用结构变动值K和Moore指数作为我国三次产业结构变动的测量指标,并以总产出增长率和HP滤波后的波动成分作为衡量经济波动的指标,文章对我国产业结构变动与宏观经济波动之间的关系进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。结果显示:产业结构变动不是我国经济波动的格兰杰原因,而经济波动是产业结构变动的格兰杰原因;这说明产业结构变动不是我国经济波动的主要冲击来源,而我国的产业结构变动却受到了经济发展的影响。
Measuring the changes of industrial structure with K index and Moore index,and using the growth rate of total output and the fluctuation ingredient after HP filter as the measurement of economic fluctuation,this paper researches the relationship between them with Granger Causality tests.It finds,changes of industrial structure is not Granger cause economic fluctuations in china,but economic fluctuation Granger cause changes in industrial structure;this shows that the changes of industrial structure is not a major shock of economic fluctuations,but it is affected by the economic development.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2011年第2期21-23,共3页
East China Economic Management
