摘要
本文实证发现 ,我国产出和美国、日本产出长期存在着稳定的协整关系 ,虽然国外冲击对我国的产出水平具有长期影响 ,但我国产出的波动主要归因于国内冲击。在识别出供给冲击和需求冲击后 ,发现只有供给冲击对产出产生永久性影响 ,需求冲击对产出的影响很小 ;需求冲击无论在短期还是在长期 ,对通胀率的影响幅度较大。因此 ,我国应从改善供给的角度减弱或消除不利的供给冲击对产出波动的影响 ,货币政策无论在短期还是在长期都应把物价稳定放在首要目标。
This paper empirically shows that there exists a cointegration relationship among the outputs of China, USA and Japan. Although foreign shocks have permanent effects on the domestic output in levels, the fluctuations of domestic output are dominated by domestic shocks. By identification between supply and demand shocks, we find that only supply shocks have pemanent effects on output while demand shocks have little effects. Nevertheless demand shocks have significant effects on inflation either in the long run or in the short run. In order to mitigate or eliminate fluctuations caused by negative supply shocks, we must be concemed about improving the supply of output. The stability of price should be the prime objective of monetary policy in any circumstance.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2002年第2期10-20,共11页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金 ( 70 0 71 0 4 5 )
关键词
经济波动
结构向量自回归
冲击响应分析
政策
中国
shock, economic fluctuation, identification, structural vector autoregression, impulse-response analysis
