摘要
根据西藏怒江流域9个气象站1980-2008年年平均气温、年降水量资料,采用Miami模型研究该流域高寒草甸气候生产潜力的地域分布以及年代际变化。结果表明,近29年西藏怒江流域气候生产潜力中上游主要受温度条件的制约,中下游主要受降水条件的制约,气候生产潜力与年降水量和主要生长季平均温度显著正相关。总体上气候生产潜力的分布存在较大的地区差异,下游地区明显高于上游地区。过去29年,由于温度的逐年升高,伴随降水的增加,气候生产潜力呈逐渐增加趋势,且增幅较明显。整个怒江流域未来90年(2011-2100年)有向"暖湿型"气候方向发展的趋势,降水将成为该流域气候生产潜力的主要气候限制因子,总体上气候生产潜力呈增加趋势,但增幅不大,未来气候对该流域畜牧业发展和生态环境改善有利。
Annual mean temperature and precipitation data from nine meteorological stations in the Nujiang Basin of Tibet over the period 1980to 2008were used to compute the climatic potential grassland productivity using Miami models,and to analyse grassland spatial distribution and variation.Over the past 29years,climat- ic potential grassland productivity of the upper reaches（from Amdo to Tengchen）of the Nujiang Basin were mainly affected by the temperature conditions and the mid-lower reaches（from Lhorong to Zayul）by precipita- tion.From the upper to lower reaches there were generally uneven geographical distributions that changed markedly with age.Correlation analysis demonstrated that climatic potential productivity was significantly neg- atively correlated with annual mean precipitation（P〈0.01）,and with the mean temperature of the main grow- ing season（P〈0.05）.There were some regional differences in distribution of climatic potential grassland pro- ductivity which was significantly higher in the downstream region than in the upper reaches,The climate will trend to a＂warmer and wetter-type＂due to temperature rise and precipitation increases,so the climatic poten- tial grassland productivity may be increased in the Nujiang Basin over the next 90years.The research indicates that the the warmer,wetter trend in the Nujiang Basin will benefit the development of pasture husbandry,es- pecially for improving the eco-environment.
出处
《草业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期17-24,共8页
Acta Prataculturae Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40865008)
科技部国际科技合作项目(2009DFA91900)资助
关键词
草地气候生产潜力
高寒草甸
Miami模型
climatic potential grassland productivity
alpine meadow basin
Miami models
