摘要
根据 195 7— 1998年雅鲁藏布江中游拉萨、日喀则、泽当、江孜 4个站 6～ 8月的月平均气温、降水资料 ,通过线性趋势估计和多项式函数拟合等方法分析了雅鲁藏布江中游地区夏季气候长期趋势变化和周期变化 ,并利用滑动T检验等方法讨论了气候突变的问题。结果表明 :在过去 42a里 ,该流域夏季气温有明显的上升趋势 ,1980年突变增暖非常明显 ;而夏季降水呈下降趋势 ,6 0年代中后期至80年代末降水普遍偏少 ,90年代降水出现回升势头。气温、降水的主要周期集中在高频波段 ,显著周期为 2 .8～ 3 .5a。
The climatic variation tendencies and interdecadal variations over middle reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibetan Plateau are analyzed by using the observed data of summer mean temperature/precipitation at 4 stations ( Lasha, Xigaze, Zedang and Jiangzi) from 1957 to 1998. The main results are as follows: There exists respectively significant ascent and descent trends for summer temperature and rainfall over this region in recent 42 years. An obvious climatic jump of summer temperature occurs in late 1970's through early 1980's. From the middle of 1960's to 1980's the summer rainfall was obviously below the normal in this area. However, there was an increasing trend of rainfall after 1990. Summer temperature and precipitation have the oscillation period of 2~3 years.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第1期71-75,共5页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
中国气象局<印度季风与西藏高原夏季降水>项目
西藏自治区科委<西藏农区夏季旱涝规律及预报>项目共同资助
