摘要
分析了1978～2007年庆阳市环境-经济系统的能值流量与能值效率的演变轨迹.并以环境负荷率(ELR)、能值废弃率(EWR)作为环境压力指标,运用协整检验、Granger因果检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM),通过分析人均GDP与环境压力指标变量之间在时序维度上的因果关系和相互影响程度,进一步阐述经济与环境系统的耦合关系及其动态特征.结果表明,庆阳市经济发展对不可更新资源的依赖度大,环境-经济系统的产出效率总体下降,但环境负荷不断上升.计量分析表明,经济增长与环境压力之间存在单向因果关系,且已形成"恶性循环圈",环境-经济耦合系统表现出不可持续的发展态势.
In this paper,we evaluate the evolutionary trajectory of emergy flow and emergy efficiency of the Coupled Environmental-Economic System （CEES） in Qingyang,Gansu Province for 30 years from 1978~2007. We applied the Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test to examine the co-integration and casual relationship between per capital GDP and environmental pressure measured by environmental load ratio and emergy waste ratio. Subsequently,by adopting the Vector Error Correction Model （VECM）,we analyzed the strength of the causality so as to further elaborate the coupled relationship between the economic and environmental systems and its dynamic features. The results indicate that the economic growth relies heavily on non-renewable resources in Qingyang,and the yield efficiency of CEES has been declining,whereas,at the same time,the environmental load has been rising. The econometric analysis indicated that there is unidirectional causality from economic growth to environmental pressure. Additionally,a vicious cycle of economic development and environmental degradation has been created. Thus,the CEES of Qingyang presents an unsustainable evolutionary trend in the future.
出处
《环境科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期2125-2135,共11页
Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae
基金
国家自然科学基金(No. 40871061)~~
关键词
环境-经济耦合系统
能值
协整
GRANGER因果关系
向量误差修正模型
庆阳
coupled environmental-economic system
emergy
co-integration
Granger casual relationship
vector error correction model
Qingyang City
