摘要
运用向量误差修正模型,对中国人均GDP与污染物排放量之间关系进行先验性因果检验,并基于层次分析法测算了中国坏境污染综合指数.在此基础上,根据经济增长与环境质量的实际变动趋势,选用二次函数对人均GDP与环境污染综合指数之间的动态关系进行模拟.结果显示:无论从长期或短期来看,都存在着从人均GDP到各种污染物排放量的单向因果关系;中国环境污染综合指数随人均GDP的增加呈现上升趋势,环境质量随经济发展而逐步好转的现象尚未出现.从经济发展方式、环境政策等方面对导致上述结果的原因进行了解释.
With the vector error correction model, the causality between the indicators of per capita GDP and each kind of pollutant was tested. Then, the comprehensive index of environmental pollution in China was calculated by the analytic hierarchy process. According to the analysis above, the dynamic relationships between per capita GDP and the comprehensive index of environmental pollution in China was simulated with a quadratic function. The results reveal that there is a unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to each pollutant both in the long term and short term. Simultaneously, the comprehensive index of environmental pollution presents an increasing tendency as China＇s per capita GDP grows. Finally, a reasonable explanation for this result was given from the viewpoint of China＇s economic development mode and environmental policy.
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第3期35-39,共5页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40871061)
关键词
环境库兹涅茨曲线
因果关系检验
环境污染综合指数
environmental Kuznets curve
causality test
comprehensive index of environmental pollution
