摘要
根据中国1978-2007年人均CO2排放量、人均用油当量与人均GDP的统计数据,通过构建向量误差修正模型,应用Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法,考察了中国经济增长与环境污染和能源消耗的关系。结果表明:中国经济增长与环境污染和能源消耗存在长期稳定的协整关系,而且经济增长与能源消耗之间存在着长期双向因果关系,能源消耗是环境污染强单向因果关系。方差分解表明:短期内经济增长与能源消耗主要受自身波动影响较大,长期中经济增长与能源消耗间相互影响越来越明显;另外,能源消耗波动始终是环境污染的主要原因,而且影响越来越突出。
Based on a time series data during 1978-2007 of China, the relationship between economic development, environment pollution, and energy consumption was tested by Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test through Vector Error Correction Model （VECM）. The results indicate that there is a long-run eointegrating relationship between the variables. There is bi directional causality between economic development and energy consumption in the long run. Energy consumption is strong reason of economic development. Variance decomposition shows that economic development and energy consumption are mainly affected by themselves in the short-run, and the interaction of economic development and energy consumption is becoming more and more obvious in the long-run. Furthermore, energy consumption exerts a main causal influence on environmental pollution.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期75-79,共5页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40971303
41071332)
高校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20102329110001)
中国博士后基金项目(20110491020)
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(QC2009C70)
黑龙江省博士后资助项目(LBH-Z09263)
黑龙江省教育厅项目(11551132)
哈尔滨师范大学青年学术骨干项目(10XQXG08)
黑龙江省高等学校科技创新团队建设计划项目(2010td10)
关键词
经济增长
协整
误差修正模型
GRANGER因果关系
环境污染
能源消耗
economic development
cointegration
Vector Error Correction Model
Granger causality
environment pollution
en ergy consumption
