摘要
在我国城市化发展进程中,伴随着犯罪率的显著上升,二者具有显著的长期趋势的一致性和短期波动的差异性。"严打"运动的外部冲击对协整模型具有显著的结构影响,"严打"运动在短期也起到了遏制犯罪的震慑效果。
In the process of urbanization in China, with the significant increase in crime rate, there is the significant consistency in long-term trends and difference in short-term fluctuations.The external shocks lead to a structural effect on cointegration models.It shows that campaigns of taking severe measures against grave illegal and criminal activities could curb the crime strongly in the short term.
出处
《犯罪研究》
2010年第4期16-25,共10页
Chinese Criminology Review
关键词
犯罪率
城市化进程
结构突变
协整检验
误差修正模型
the crime rate
the urbanization
structural break
cointegration tests
error correction models
