摘要
文章采用1978—2007年全国犯罪发案率与城市化进程指标数据,通过建立回归与ARMA组合模型(科克伦迭代法),分析了1978年以来我国城市化进程对犯罪发案率的影响,并用2008年的数据对模型的精度进行了检验;从而探讨了二者间存在的相关关系,并就城市化进程对犯罪发案率的影响加以解释。
Based on the statistics data from the year 1978 to 2007 about Chinese crime incidence rate and urbanized level, and establishes a regression and ARMA model,this paper analyzes the change of crime incidence rate which was caused by Chinese urbanization since the year 1978,and uses the data of year 2008 to test the accuracy of the model .Then,based on the empirical result,this paper discusses the key relations between crime incidence rate and urbanized level and explaines impactions between crime incidence rate and the urbanization.
出处
《四川警察学院学报》
2010年第5期1-6,共6页
Journal of Sichuan Police College
