摘要
利用湖北省71个气象台站1960-2007年地面观测资料以及旱涝受灾面积、成灾面积资料,在当地常用旱涝指标的基础上,提出全省性的旱涝指数,并采用最小二乘法对湖北省旱涝气象灾害变化特征以及旱涝受灾面积、受灾率、成灾率与旱涝气象灾害指数、水稻种植百分率进行了分析。结果表明:6-8月是湖北省的主汛期,85%以上中涝、90%以上的大涝均发生在这一时期;干旱每月都有可能出现,但4-9月干旱对湖北省农业的影响最大;湖北省旱涝气象灾害每年都有不同程度发生;近50年大涝出现的频率为3年一遇,大旱为4年一遇,旱涝指数随年际的变化加强或减弱的趋势并不明显。洪涝受灾面积、受灾率、成灾率以及干旱成灾率加重趋势较为显著,其原因一方面是农业种植结构的变化,耐涝性能较强的水稻种植面积的大量减少,而旱地面积相对增加,另一方面水利设施设备老化,河道淤积,排洪灌溉能力减弱。
According to the ground weather observation data from l960 to 2007 at 71 weather stations in Hubei Province and the drought and flood disaster-affected and disaster-suffering area data,the drought and flood index of Hubei Province was proposed based on single station index often used in Hubei Province.Factors such as the variation characters of drought and flood,the disaster-affected area,the disaster-affected rate（the ratio of the disaster-affected area to total planting area）,the disaster-suffering rate（the ratio of the disaster-suffering area to total disaster-affected area）,the meteorological disasters index of drought and flood and the rice planting percentage in Hubei Province were analyzed by using the least square method.The results showed that the main flood season of Hubei Province is from June to August,in which more than 85% of medium flood and more than 90% of serious flood ocurred,and that the drought may occur in once a month potentially.Because the most important farming season in Hubei Province is from April to September,the drought during this period has the greatest influence on the local agricultural production.In conclusion,the meteorological disasters of drought and flood in Hubei Province occur every year in different degree.The serious flood occurs one time every 3 years and the serious drought occurs one time every 4 years in recent 50 years.Though the annual trend of the drought and flood index is ambiguous,the increasing tendency of the disaster-affected area and the disaster-suffering rate is obvious.On one hand,the agricultural planting structure has changed,namely,the rice planting area decreased while the dry land area increased relatively.This change enhanced the waterlogging degree of dry land crops due to the rice having a good waterlogging tolerance and being able to store water.On the other hand,the farmland water conservancy facilities are aging and the riverway is being silted up.
出处
《华中农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期326-332,共7页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University
基金
财政部行业专项(GYHY200806002)
中国气象局2007年度气候变化专项(CCSF2007-21)
武汉区域气象中心科技发展基金重点项目(QY-Z-200807)资助
关键词
洪涝
干旱
受灾面积
成灾率
flood
drought
disaster-affected area
disaster-suffering rate
