摘要
南水北调中线工程输水总干渠上需建数以百计的河渠交叉建筑物。总干渠经过地区为暴雨多发区，只要其中任一座遭遇特大洪水而失事，干渠供水将会受到影响。对这些交叉建筑物进行水毁风险分析，是此项工程规划、设计和运行管理的供输水风险评价和可靠度分析必不可少的组成部分。主要从水文风险要素的辨识入手，采用概率组合法，建立了整个总干渠洪水水毁风险计算的框架，并提出了二维复合事件的风险计算模型。所建模型巧妙地解决了各交叉建筑物水毁事故之间的相关性，简化了大型串联系统风险计算的复杂性，详细计算了海河流域南运河段不同工程设计标准的水毁风险，经过多方比较论证，说明该河段计算成果合理可靠。并在此基础上估算了整个干渠的水毁总风险。
The main canal of the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project is so long as 1241.2km,and has hundreds of cross-structures such as aqueducts.If any one fails somewhere on the canal due to ab-normal floods, water supply will be discontinued.Therefore,the hydrological risk is one of the key points in the re-liability and risk assessment for the project.The risk computation for the complex serial system is effectively sim-plified by two-dimension joint probability distribution and the Minimum Frequency Series.A general risk asses-ment model has been presented and calibrated comprehensively with the data of a segment of the canal.It turnsout that the results are reasonable and the model is applicable for the other water supply systems.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第3期1-7,共7页
Journal of China Hydrology
关键词
南水北调工程
水工建筑物
风险分析
水毁
South-to-North Water Transfer Project,hydraulic structure,risk analysis,probability model.
