摘要
本文基于时间序列模型研究航空物流与国际贸易及经济发展的关系,根据我国1952-2007年的相关数据,利用计量经济学方法,对航空货运、国际贸易和GDP之间的长期和短期的动态关系进行了实证分析。结果表明它们之间存在长期稳定的关系。进一步的分析表明国际贸易的波动比经济的波动对航空货运影响更大,而航空货运的冲击对国际贸易的影响比其对经济发展的影响更大。最后在此分析的基础上,对如何发展航空物流以促进我国国际贸易和经济的进一步增长提出了几点建议。
This paper studies the relationship between air logistics and both international trade and economic development. Based on the data from 1952 to 2007 of China, econometric model is employed to analyze the long-tern and short-term dynamic relationship between air logistics and both international trade and economic development. The results show that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between air logistics and both international trade and economic development. It is also found that the impact on air cargo of innovation from international trade is higher than that from GDP, while the impact of the innovation from air cargo is higher on international trade than on GDP. Finally, some advices are presented.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期19-24,共6页
Journal of International Trade
基金
教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NCET-09-0301)
对外经济贸易大学优秀博士学位论文培育基金(7360006)的资助
关键词
航空物流
航空货运
国际贸易
经济发展
中国
Air logistics
Air cargo
International trade
Economic development
China
