摘要
本文使用时间序列相关分析、单位根检验、协整分析、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应研究我国公路物流、国内贸易与经济发展的关系。研究结果显示,我国公路物流、国内贸易与经济发展之间存在协整关系。从脉冲响应分析来看,短期的国内贸易、经济发展的波动均会对公路物流产生影响。从长期协整关系来看,国内贸易的波动比经济发展的波动对公路物流的影响要大。对于未来如何发展公路物流与国内贸易,本文的建议是:(1)当经济形势不太乐观时,实施刺激消费政策,在一定程度上可以促进公路物流与国内贸易向前发展;(2)应加快放开对国内贸易的经营管理政策,各地商务主管部门加大与物流产业管理相关部门的合作,以增强国内贸易的活力,拉动经济、促进公路物流的发展;(3)大力发展公路物流网络线路,加快推进等级公路建设,提高公路物流的效率,促进公路物流与国内贸易、经济的协调发展。
By using time sequence correlation analysis,unit root test,cointegration test and Granger cause test,impulse responses,the paper studies the relation among highway logistics and domestic trade and economic development. The research results show that China＇s highway logistics,domestic trade and economic development have a cointegration relation. The impulse responses analysis shows that the changing of domestic trade and economic development has an effect to highway logistics in a short-term period,the cointegration equation shows that domestic trade has a bigger effect on highway logistics than economic development does in a long-term period. About how to develop highway logistics and domestic trade,the paper suggests that the local government should derugulate the business management policy of domestic trade to strengthen the efficiency of highway logistics,by developing the highway logistics network,which can promote the highway logistics,domestic trade and economic development together.
出处
《中国经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期92-99,共8页
China Economic Studies
基金
浙江省高校优秀青年教师项目"浙江省物流产业发展与经济增长"(0202107933)资助
浙江省重大软科学研究项目(2008C25045)资助
关键词
公路物流
国内贸易
经济发展
highway logistics
domestic trade
economic development
empirical research
