摘要
目的利用Markov模型对宫颈癌早诊治进行评价。方法运用Markov链的无记忆性,预测从现在开始20年的情况,以自然发展组作为对照组,分别计算了终身筛查一次、每2年筛查一次、第5年筛查一次的队列分布。结果每2年筛查一次与自然发展相比,20年可以增加4286个质量调整生命年数(Quality-adjusted life year,QALY),减少5368个伤残调整寿命年(Disalility-adjusted life year,DALY),减少患病人数1418人,减少死亡人数3263人;筛查的累计患病率与累计死亡率与自然发展相比均有所下降。结论应用Markov模型可以对疾病的早诊治作卫生经济学评价,从而制定出适宜特定人群的有效的筛查方案,为决策者提供决策依据。
Objective Markov model was utilized for cervical cancer early detection and treatment evaluation.Methods The Memoryless of Markov chain was utilized,the queue distribution in 20 years from now was forecasted,a natural development was grouped as the control group,life-long,every 2 years and 5 years of the queue distribution of once screening were calculated respectively.Results Screening every 2 years was compared with a natural development,the QALY would increase to 4286,the DALY would reduce to 5368,the number of patients would reduce to 1418,and the number of deaths would reduce to 3263 in 20 years.Compared with the natural development,the cumulative prevalence rate of screening and the cumulative mortality rate had declined both.Conclusion Markov model would be used in health economics evaluation of disease for the early detection and treatment,effective screening programs would be developed to specific group of people,and the basis of decision would be provided for policy-makers.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期17-20,共4页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
"十一五科技"支撑项目
项目编号:2006BAI02A15
