摘要
为从源头预防公路交通快速发展所引发的环境污染问题,应运用环境影响评价将对环境的考虑融入公路网规划。针对交通决策及其环境影响的不确定性,研究了如何利用"情景分析"预测公路网规划的潜在环境影响,剖析了未来公路交通发展不确定性的来源,运用因果链分析了未来交通发展及其环境影响之间的逻辑关系。通过建立污染物排放定量模型,构建了一套定性与定量相结合的综合情景分析模式,并将该模式应用于湖北省骨架公路网规划环境影响评价中。结果表明,该方法能够有效解决公路网规划环境影响的不确定性问题,促进可持续的交通决策。
It is required to integrate environmental concerns into highway network plans using environmental impact assessment in order to prevent environmental problems induced by highway transport development.Given great level of uncertainty about transport strategies and their environmental impacts,this paper examines how to apply scenario analysis to forecasting environmental impacts of highway network plan.It explores the sources of uncertainty in highway transport development and analyzes the logic relations between future transport development and its environmental impacts through causal chain.A combined qualitative and quantitative framework of scenario analysis was established on the basis of pollutant emission model building.Subsequently,this framework was employed in environmental impact assessment for Hubei Highway Network Plan.The results demonstrate the validity of scenario analysis in coping with uncertain issues in environmental impacts of highway network plan and this method can contribute to the sustainability of highway network decision-making.
出处
《南开大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期93-101,共9页
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis
基金
世界银行战略环境评价试点项目
教育部"985工程"国家循环经济哲学社会创新基地项目
关键词
不确定性
公路网规划
情景分析
环境影响评价
uncertainty
highway network plan
scenario analysis
environmental impact assessment
