摘要
通过运用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、广义脉冲响应函数法和方差分解法,考察山东省1984-2008年四类环境污染指标与出口贸易之间的长期动态影响特征。分析结果表明,出口贸易导致了山东省环境污染物排放量增多,是造成环境污染的重要原因之一;环境污染对出口贸易也存在反向抑制作用,且在短期内比较明显;从方差分解结果可以得出,出口贸易对解释各类污染指标的预测方差贡献度相对较大。
By employing co-integration test,Granger causality test,generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis,this article investigates the long-term dynamic interactions between exporting trade and four environmental pollution indexes in Shandong during 1984 to 2008.The results show that exporting trade is one of the important causes which leads to more environmental pollution.The environmental pollution also has reverse inhibitory action on the exporting trade and it is more obvious in a short time.The result of variance decomposition analysis suggests that exporting trade has more degree of contribution to explain the forecasting mean square error of pollution variable.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第3期53-57,共5页
Urban Problems
基金
中国博士后基金项目(20070410193)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(05&ZD032)--工业反哺农业与城乡协调发展战略研究之阶段成果
关键词
出口贸易
环境污染
协整检验
广义脉冲响应函数
方差分解分析
exporting trade
environmental pollution
co-integration test
generalized impulse response function
variance decomposition analysis
