摘要
通过对湖滩地区日本血吸虫病传播过程的研究，在两阶段催化模型的基础上，建立了湖滩地区日本血吸虫病的传播模型。根据大规模的流行病学调查资料，估计传播模型的各个参数；发现日本血吸虫感染的阴转速率约为０２５，同时对不同类型人群的各个参数（β１、β２）进行估计，这些参数决定着传染源、钉螺等因素对传播所起作用的大小；并用南矶山（鄱阳湖区）和新尚村（洞庭湖区）实际观察资料对模型的有效性进行了验证。该模型对湖滩地区各种不同的控制策略进行了系统分析，以从理论上寻找优化的综合防治措施。
Development of a transmission model for Schistosomiasis japonica in lake marshlands region was based on studying on Schistosomiasis japonica transmission in the 9 field study units around Poyang and Dongtin Lakes.This model is dynamic and includes factors:human and animal hosts,snails and probablity of infected water contact.Parameters β 1,β 2,which indicated sources of infection,snails had influence over schistosomiasis japonica transmission,were estimated;Parameter B,which was the corresponding coeffiicent for the process of de infection,was about 0 25.The data from Nanjishan and Xinshang were used to validate the model.Model predictions for above two areas compared quite favorably with observed values.
关键词
传播模型
日本血吸虫
湖滩地区
血吸虫病
Transmission model Schistosomiasis japonica Lake Marshlands region
