摘要
为了便于沙澧河流域防汛气象预报服务效果的比较和评判,进一步提高服务水平,从预报准确率、预报服务覆盖率、预报服务时效率、可能预防能力等4个方面对气象服务效益进行评估,给出了定量评估的方法。其中,预报服务时效和预报准确率是决定防汛气象预报服务效益大小的因子,这两个因子具有可提高的潜力,是提高气象服务水平和防汛效益的研究重点。预报服务时效和预报准确率同时提高才能取得更好的效益,任何一面都是不可忽视的。
In order to facilitate to comparison and judgment, and further raise the forecasting services of flood prevention in Shall river basin, the essay make a quantitative evaluation method of the weather forecasting services from the forecasting accuracy, coverage of forecasting service, the efficiency of forecasting service, the ability to flood prevention. Among them, the forecasting accuracy and the efficiency of forecasting service are the determinate factors of service benefit to flood prevention. The two factors can be improved and they are the emphasis of the research to improve the forecasting service and the ability to flood prevention. For a better service benefit, they must be improved at one time, and no one can be ignored.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2009年第4期44-46,共3页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
关键词
防汛
预报服务
效益
定量评估方法
flood prevention
recasting service
benefit
quantitative evaluation method
