摘要
通过对河北省及邻近地区1980～1997年地震前兆异常信度按时间进行合成，其结果对该地区Ms≥5地震有较好的对应效果。再将前兆异常的信度视为时间和距离的函数，建立地震前兆异常综合信度的时空动态模型，并对1976年以来河北省及其邻近地区Ms≥5地震（不含唐山余震）进行检验，结果表明，地展均发生在前兆综合信度的高值区。对1979年7月9日江苏保阳6.0级地震和1985年4月18日云南禄劝6．3级地震进行检验，结果也较理想。
In this papert the confidence level of seismic precursor anomalies is synthesized with time for Hebei region and adjacent area from 1980～1997, and the results correspond very well to Ms ≥5 earthquake in the region. The confidence level of precursor anomalies is considered as the function of time and distance,a time and space dynamic model of confidence level synthesis of the seismic precursors is established. We tested the model with Ms≥5 earthquake (not in-cluding after shocks) in Hebei region and its adjacent area , and see that all the events occurred in the high value region of synthesized confidence level. We tested the model with M = 6. 0earthquake occurred in Liyang of Jiangsu Province on July 9, 1979, and M = 6. 3 earthquake occurred in Luquan of Yunnan Province on April 18, 1985, and got good results als0.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第4期319-324,共6页
Earthquake
基金
国家地震局"九五"科研攻关项目!96-04-05-02-04
关键词
地震前兆异常
信度综合
地震预报
检验
Earthquake precursor anomalies, Confidence level synthesis,Test
