摘要
本文在重新审查了1979—1989年河北省内全部及邻区个别台站的地形变、水化学、深井水位、地电、地应力等定点前兆观测资料以后,发现异常在时间、空间上的分布是复杂的,各种单项手段的异常与地震没有确定的对应关系,但似乎可以看出在河北省及其邻近地区M_s≥4.8地震前数月,异常有一个从无序到有序的演化过程。按各单项手段对应地震的评分值R作带权平均合成,发现在M_s4.8以上地震之前,合成量有一个逐步上升过程,地震发生在峰值后70天之内。对合成量进行积分,其积分值与震级呈线性关系,据此可以估计未来的震级。此方法对应地震的比例为90.9％,预报效能R值为0.81。
After reexamining the observed data of the fixed-point precurcors, such as crustal deformation, hydrochemistry, deep-well water level, telluric current, crustal stress and others in and around Hebei Province from 1979 to 1989. it is suggested that the distribution of anomalies is complicated in time and space, and the individual anomaly has no certain corresponding relation to the earthquakes, but it can be seen that the anomalies showed an evolutional process from disorder to order several months before Ms ≥ 4.8 earthquakes in and around Hebei Province. Carrying out weighed average synthesis according to the marking value R of individual anomaly corresponding to the earthquakes, it is found that the synthesis is a gradually rising process before Ms≥4.8 earthquakes occurred within 70 days after the peak value. The synthetic amount is integrated, its integral value is in linear relation with the magnitude; and the magnitude of future earthquakes can be estimated. The method shows that its proportion corresponding to the earthquakes is 90.9% and R value is 0.81.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第5期29-34,共6页
Earthquake
