摘要
采用灰色预测理论,对安徽省1991～2007年经济发展与环境污染的关系进行了研究。建立了关于两者的灰色预测模型,经检验模型具有较高的精度。对安徽省未来五年经济发展与环境污染预测结果表明,未来五年,安徽省除了第三产业比重下降外,其余经济发展与环境污染指标都有上升的趋势,这种"高增长、高污染"的经济增长方式是不符合可持续发展战略的。
This paper studies the relationship between economic development and environment pollution in Anhui province from 1991 to 2007 by using gray forecasting theory, sets up gray forecasting about economic development and environment pollution, testing results indicate that the model has higher accuracy. The forecasting results indicate that, in the next five year, there is a rising trend among economic development and environment pollution＇ indicators except that the proportion of tertiary industry will decline. This economic growth mode of ＂high-growth, high-pollution＂ is not in conformity with the strategy of sustainable development.
出处
《价值工程》
2009年第10期24-27,共4页
Value Engineering
基金
安徽省教育厅社科基地资助项目(2008sk215)
安徽省教育厅课题资助项目"循环经济计量分析研究"(2006sk113)
关键词
环境与经济
灰色预测模型
灰色关联度
environment and economy
gray forecasting model
gray relational grade
