摘要
辽宁省是东北唯一的沿海省份,而海洋环境是经济增长的重要影响因素和承载,因此研究辽宁沿海经济带经济与海洋环境协调发展是实现辽宁经济可持续发展的关键。本文在对辽宁沿海经济带经济和海洋环境现状分析的基础上,从经济、海洋环境两个方面科学合理选取评价指标,采用可变模糊识别模型研究经济带经济与海洋环境的协调性。结果表明:辽宁沿海经济带各地区的经济增长与海洋环境发展尚处于略好于动态平衡却远不足于明显协调阶段。从时间序列上分析,辽宁沿海经济带战略并非对各区均有利且弊端明显,以2008年较2005年为例,虽然盘锦、丹东、葫芦岛和锦州地区协调度呈上升趋势,而营口和大连地区协调度却呈下降的趋势。并且通过产业分解和GK.E模型深入剖析了辽宁沿海经济带的经济发展差距和海洋环境污染节距,产业分解显示一产、二产和三产分别对经济差距起到了减缓、加剧和维系的作用;而GK.E模型分析,在经济结构和集中效应影响下,盘锦和丹东葫芦岛地区的海洋环境要明显好于大连、锦州和营口地区。
Liaoning Province is the only coastal north-east province of China, while the marine environment is an important influencing factor and bearing of economic growth, so the study of economic coordination with economic development and the marine environment is the key to achieve Liaoning sustainable economic development. and the marine environment of economic analysis, In this paper, Liaoning coastal economic belt based on economic, select both the marine environment evaluation, built in Liaoning coastal economic belt and the marine environment, sustainable development, economic evaluation index system, evaluation of class division, and using AHP method to determine the index weight, while the use of variable fuzzy recognition model analysis of Liaoning coastal economic belt and the marine environment of economic coordination degree.The results show that： the regions of Liaoning coastal economic belt＇ s economic growth and development and the marine environment are still in a condition that a little better than the dynamic equilibrium but far less than in the apparent coordination stage. From the time series analysis, Liaoning coastal economic zone strategy is not beneficial but drawbacks of various apparent to the regions. For example, to contrast 2008 and 2005, although the coordination degree of Panjin, Dandong, Jinzhou are rising, Huludao ,Yingkou and Dalian are in a downward trend. And by industry decomposition and GK.E model analysis the gap of the regions of Liaoning coastal economic belt and the marine environment pollution disparity, industrial production shows that primary , secondary and tertiary industry were played on slow down economic disparities, increase and maintain the effect; and GK.E model analysis, under the effect of economic structure and concentration, the marine environment in Panjin, Dandong area was significantly better in Dalian and Yingkou.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第9期1712-1725,共14页
Resources Science
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(编号:11JJD790016)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(编号:11JJD790051)
关键词
辽宁沿海经济带
协调发展
可变模糊识别
区域差异
Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt
Coordinated development
Variable fuzzy recognition
Regional differences
