摘要
复杂的突发事件因决策目标、决策环境、决策主体的差异而具有不同的决策特征,因此应急决策应基于个体特征进行有效性评价。首先在调查与分析的基础上确定评价指标体系,通过求解个体标准识别决策的个体特征,并基于个体标准对应急决策的有效性进行代理评价。多级个体特征识别模型依据目标规划方法,采用2-范数意义下的距离,从体现决策个体的有效性最优值的角度,由底及顶逐层确定每项决策的个体标准,从而得到个体标准体系。应用于地铁火灾事故的模拟仿真算例表明,方法为应急决策的有效性评价提供了一种具有可比性的标准,能够为改进决策有效性提供有针对性的建议。
In the complex process of emergency decision, since the goals, environments and decision makers are different, the features of emergency decision are diverse. It is necessary to evaluate effectiveness based on the individual features of decision. We first set up an evaluation index framework based on previous studies,identify the individual features of decisions by solving the problem of individual criterion and evaluate the other decisions as an agent according to individual feature identification model. By goal programming, multilevel individual feature identification model 2-norm distance is adopted, from the view point of incarnating the effective optimal value of decision-making individual. Then we obtain the individual criterion of each decision by determining the individual criterion system layer by layer from the bottom to the top. Finally, we apply the method to fire accident in subway to evaluate the effectiveness of eight decisions. The simulation result shows that the method can provide a comparable criterion for evaluating decision effectiveness, and thus, it may give some suggestions to improve the effectiveness in emergency decision.
出处
《系统工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第7期75-80,共6页
Systems Engineering
关键词
应急决策
个体特征识别
决策有效性评价
个体标准
有效性评价体系
Emergency Decision
Individual Feature Identification
Evaluation of Decision Effectiveness
Individual CriterionEffectiveness Evaluation System
