摘要
根据1952～2006年间中国三次产业就业的人数,利用向量自回归模型(VAR)分析了三者之间的动态相关性。结果表明,55年来中国三次产业就业结构的变化基本符合配弟—克拉克定律,但各产业就业总量的变化却与之不甚相符。在中国目前的经济背景下,预计第二产业就业人数将继续上升,将在5年后达到峰值。第三产业就业人数预计在2024年左右达到高峰,但不会超过第一产业就业人数。中国促进就业的关键在于第二产业的发展。
Based on VAR model, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship of the employment in three industries in China from 1952 to 2006. The result demonstrates that the trend of employment structure of the three industries is consistent with Petty-Clark law. However, the change on the of number of the employment is not consistent with the law. It is estimated that the number of employment of the second industry will continually rise and will reach its climax in 5 years. Though the number of employment of the third industries will reach its climax in 2024, the total number of the employment will not surpass that of the first industry. The key to increase the total employment in China lies in the development of the second industry.
出处
《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2009年第1期56-61,共6页
Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences
关键词
三次产业
就业
脉冲响应函数
协整关系
three industries
employment
impulse response function
cooperated-integration relationship
