摘要
研究目的:探讨中国城市化—工业化用地需求和满足粮食安全的耕地供给之间的消长关系及变化规律,以期为国家土地利用政策提供科学依据。研究方法:首先提出关于最小人均耕地面积(即满足粮食安全的人均耕地需求)和耕地非农化逻辑斯蒂的假设。然后对历年中国耕地的统计数据进行订正,重建1980—2006年耕地数据序列。据此计算了同期的最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数(反映耕地需求和供给的对比关系),并验证耕地非农化逻辑斯蒂假设。研究结果:保障粮食安全的人均耕地需求数量逐渐降低,耕地压力指数虽先降后升但总体呈下降趋势。中国在基本满足城市化—工业化用地需求和生态退耕,因而满足粮食安全需求的耕地供给不断减少,同时人口又不断增加的情况下,粮食安全状况非但没有恶化,反而有所改善;耕地压力指数非但没有加重,反而有所减轻,根本原因在于土地生产率的不断提高。耕地非农化逻辑斯蒂增长过程的推导和证明,显示了两个拐点分别出现在1980年和2050年,前者是从缓慢到加速的转折点;后者是从增长到停滞的转折点,保证粮食安全的耕地供给将趋于稳定。其间还有一个由加速到减缓的拐点将出现在2015年。研究结论:城市化—工业化用地需求和粮食安全用地需求可以兼顾。
The purpose of this study is to reveal the relationship and correlation of land supply for food security and land demand for urbanization-industrialization in China,so as to provide scientific basis for national land use policy. The main methods involve hypothesis verification. The hypotheses on minimum area of cultivated land per capita （reflecting cultivated land demand for food security） and on logistic equation of cultivated land conversion are put forward. The annual data of cultivated land are corrected and series of data during 1980- 2006 are re-established. Hereby minimum area of cultivated land per capita and pressure index on cultivated land （the ratio between the supply of and demand for cultivated land） are culculated. The research results demonstrate that the demand of cutivated land per capita for food security is decreasing gradually, the pressure index on cultivated land is generally in a downtrend. Under the conditions that the land demands for urbanization and industialization and for ecological construction have been met, thus land supply for food security has been decreased continuouslly, and population has increased at the same time, however the situation of food security is not worsening but improving, the pressure index on cultivated land is not aggravating but abating. The fundamentality is the continuously increase of land productivity. The cultivated land conversion for urbanization and industrialization impacts land supply for food security. This research deduced and proved the logistic equation process of cultivated land conversion. Two inflexions appear in 1980 and 2050, the former is the turning point from gentle increase to acceleration, and the latter is the turning point from growth to stagnant suggesting the land supply for food security will tend to stable. There is another inflexion between them, that is the turning point from acceleration to slowdown in 2015. In conclusion, the demands for urbanization-industialization and food security may be met at all.
出处
《中国土地科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第3期11-18,31,共9页
China Land Science
基金
科技基础性工作专项重点项目(2007FY140800)。
关键词
粮食安全用地需求
最小人均耕地面积
耕地压力指数
耕地非农化
逻辑斯蒂增长
cultivated land demand for food security
minimum area of cultivated land per capita
pressure index on cultivated land
cultivated land conversion
logistic equation
