摘要
论文以中国经济发展进程中的建设用地增长态势为研究起点,在把握经济发展与建设用地增长规律的基础上,提出建设用地增长极限命题;通过构建边际模型,计量建设用地增长的极限时点,进而剖析时空变化规律。结果表明:①1978—2000年间中国经济发展与建设用地增长具有周期性波动特征,两者波动周期基本一致;②中国建设用地增长极限平均时点为2047年左右,不同省(市)建设用地增长极限特征不论时间纵向还是空间横向比较,都大致沿东南—西北线依次分级;③东部地区较早达到建设用地增长极限,其中上海、江苏和广东等11个省(市)早于全国平均时点,河北、四川和青海等其余19个省(市)晚于全国平均水平,东部地区建设用地增长压力较大,中、西部地区增长压力相对较小。最后,论文提出提高中、西部地区的土地利用效率,控制粗放利用,鼓励技术创新等加快逼近建设用地增长极限的政策和建议。
This article takes construction land increase trend in the process of economic development as a start point of research.Based on the law of economic development and construction land increasing,we proposed the growth limit of construction land.Then according to marginal theory we built models to calculate the growth limit of construction land in China.Furthermore,we analyzed the growth limit of construction land in each province.The following conclusions are drawn.Firstly,both economic development and construction land increase are characterized by periodic fluctuations from 1978 to 2000 and the fluctuation periods of them are highly consistent.Secondly,the year of China’s construction land growth limit is 2047.The growth limit years in every province are different.These years appear spatial and temporal distribution which is increasing from southeast to northwest.Thirdly,the eastern region get limit year earlier.For example,the limit year of the 11 provinces or cities of Shanghai,Jiangsu,Guangdong and so on is earlier than the average,and that of the 19 provinces or cities of Hebei,Sichuan,Qinghai and so on is later than the average.Finally,this paper suggests that we should improve the land use efficiency and encourage technological innovation to get the construction land limit year more quickly.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第7期1085-1095,共11页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(70833001)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(40971074)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程"测绘科学与技术学科"一期项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2011QNA01)
中国矿业大学高层次人才引进和青年教师启航计划项目(20105093)
关键词
经济发展
建设用地
极限计量
边际模型
economic development
construction land
quantitative study of limit
marginalmodel
