摘要
以Z指数为旱涝指标,确定宿州市大涝年份,应用改变背景值的中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型,通过调整m值提高模型精度,建立了精度较高的宿州市大涝发生年份GM(1,1)预测模型,并对宿州市下一个大涝发生年进行了预测。
Z-index was used as the severe drought-flood index for determining the severe flood occurrence in Suzhou City. Center approach grey GM（ 1,1 ）model which changed the background value was applied. Through adjusting m value to enhance model precision, center approach grey GM（ 1, 1 ）prediction model with higher accuracy tbr severe flood oeeun＇ence in Suzhou City was established. The future severe flood occurrence in Suzhou City was predicted.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2008年第23期9813-9814,9830,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
