摘要
酸沉降会对生态环境造成危害。要控制和减少酸沉降,就要了解酸沉降的幅度和不确定性,而模式研究是获得这些因子的重要工具。用东亚酸沉降模式比较计划(MICS-Asia II)中7个模式模拟的2001年7月和12月东亚地区酸沉降数据及东亚酸沉降监测网络(EANET)的观测数据,通过相关分析发现多模式模拟的平均值可表现东亚地区酸沉降的分布特征。采用各个模式与模拟结果平均值的离散程度来表征这些模式在东亚地区的不确定性,简要分析了目前模式模拟东亚酸沉降的不确定及其产生原因,可为制定酸沉降的控制措施提供依据。
Acid deposition has harmful impacts on ecological system. In order to control and reduce acid deposition, it is necessary to investigate the magnitude and uncertainties of acid deposition. The chemical transport model is one of the most important tools to integrate them. The authors adopted the modeling results of 7 models used in the Model Intercomparison Project for East Asia Ⅱ（MICS-Asia Ⅱ） and the observations of the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia （EANET） to discuss the model uncertainties over East Asia. The results show that mean values of the seven models can represent the distribution characters of acid deposition in East Asia. A new method is presented the model uncertainty by adopting the bias between each model results and the multi-model ensemble mean. Furthermore, the uncertainty of acid deposition simulations is analyzed by present models and is expected to offer reference for establishing control measures of acid deposition in East Asia.
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第3期273-280,共8页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2005CB422205
关键词
东亚地区
酸沉降
不确定性
East Asia, acid deposition, model uncertainties
