摘要
利用双参数Weibull分布对历史风速数据按月拟合,通过对每年相同月份的分布参数数据进行分析,提出了一种基于灰色模型的、对未来年份中对应月的风速分布参数进行预测的方法。算例结果表明,该模型可以用较少的历史数据获得较高的精度,而预测所得的参数既可以用来评估风电场的风资源,又可根据概率分布的逆运算得到符合预测参数的风速序列。上述预测结果可以广泛应用于风力发电系统的仿真或风电场并网可靠性分析等方面。
By means of monthly fitting of historical wind speed data by Weibull distribution and analyzing the distribution parameter data of corresponding months in each year, a grey model based method to forecast wind speed distribution parameters of corresponding months in future years is proposed. Results of calculation example show that using the proposed model, higher forecasting accuracy can be achieved by use of less historical data; the obtained forecasting parameters not only can be used to evaluate the wind resource of wind farm, but also by use of inverse operation of probabilistic distribution the wind speed sequence that consists with the forecasted parameters can be obtained. Above-mentioned forecasting results can be widely applied to the simulation of wind power generation system or to the analysis on reliability of interconnecting wind farm with power grid.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第14期10-14,共5页
Power System Technology
基金
国家863高技术基金项目(2007AA05Z240)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50607002)
教育部科学技术研究重大项目(306004)~~
