摘要
本文采用灰色关联分析法,对黄淮海平原1999～2005年粮食总产量与年末总人口、乡村人口、乡村从业人员数、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、化肥使用量、农作物总播种面积、粮食作物播种面积、第一产业增加值、农业基本建设投资完成额、农业从业人员、粮食占农作物播种面积百分比等12项相关因子进行了关联分析,以了解近7年影响粮食产量的强关联因子和中等关联因子。结果表明:粮食作物播种面积、粮食占农作物播种面积百分比和农业从业人员与黄淮海平原粮食总产量是强相关关系,农作物总播种面积、乡村人口、有效灌溉面积、年末总人口、乡村从业人员数、化肥使用量、第一产业增加值、农业机械总动力和农业基本建设投资完成额和黄淮海平原粮食总产量是中等相关关系。并根据粮食生产投入要素与粮食总产量关联的强弱,分别从稳定耕地面积,加快非农化过程中农民转移,农业结构调整和提高农业现代化水平等方面,阐述了稳定黄淮海平原粮食产量的途径。
This paper analyzed the twelve correlative factors on grain production of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain with the total population, rural population, rural employment, agricultural machinery power, effective irrigation area, fertilization dosage, planting area of crops, planting area of farm crops, value added of the first industry, investment in capital construction, agricultural workers, percentage of planting area of farm crops in crops from 1999 to 2005 to understand the high level and mean level associated factors in the past seven years. The result showed that planting area of farm crops, Percentage of planting area of farm crops in crops and agricultural workers were high level correlative with the total grain output of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, and planting area of crops, rural population, effective irrigation area, total population, rural employment, fertilization dosage, value added of the first industry, agricultural machinery power, and investment in capital c, onstruction were mean level correlative with the total grain output of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. This article sets forth channels to stabilize the grain output of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from the stability of cultivated land area respectively, in the process of accelerating non-agricultural farmers transfer, adjustment of agricultural structure and improve the agricultural modernization according to the strength of the input in grain production and grain output elements.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第3期310-313,共4页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家科技攻关课题(编号:2004BA508B01)
长江学者和创新团队发展计划(编号:IRT0412)
关键词
粮食产量
相关因子
灰色关联分析
黄淮海平原
grain output
correlative factor
gray correlation analysis
Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
