摘要
辽河特石埋地管道所经区域的自然地表环境因素复杂多变,大部分经过水稻田地,因此有必要对该管线进行腐蚀速度的预测。从现场埋地管道的伴热管取样,经过加工做成试件,利用腐蚀速度测试仪进行测试。应用灰色系统理论的数学原理及建模过程,建立了腐蚀速率GM(1,1)模型。应用该模型对测试试件的数据进行灰色预测,采用“残差检验法”进行检验,并对预测模型的结果进行了分析讨论,预测结果表明,模型是正确的。但该模型只能反映腐蚀轻重并且由于自然腐蚀的影响,故该预测模型适合较短期的预测。
Buried pipelines at Teshi, Liaohe area locate in a complicated and variable corrosion environment. Most of pipelines go through paddy fields. So it is necessary to predict the corroding speed of the pipelines. Samples from heat-concomitance pipes of spot buried pipelines were processed to make test pieces and tested by a corrosion speed measurer. By applying the theoretical principles and modeling process of grey system theory, GM（ 1,1 ） model of corroding speed was established. The model was used in grey forecasting for data of test pieces. Residual test method is adopted for checking. Forecasting results were analyzed and discussed. Results show that the model is correct, but the model can only reflect the corrosion effect from lightly corroding and naturally corroding. The model adepts to short-term forecasting.
出处
《辽宁石油化工大学学报》
CAS
2007年第1期47-49,共3页
Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University
关键词
腐蚀速率
灰色预测
埋地管道
电伴热
Corrosion speed
Grey forecasting
Buried pipeline
Electric heat- concomitance
