摘要
依据东北地区1971-2009年干旱、洪涝、风雹及低温灾害的受灾面积数据,并结合粮食作物单产资料,研究东北地区农业气象灾害的变化趋势及其对粮食产量的影响。趋势分析结果表明,研究期内,东北地区除风雹受灾比呈现明显下降趋势外,其余3种农业气象灾害受灾比变化趋势不明显,但均具有阶段性特征,20世纪70年代干旱受灾比要比洪涝受灾比偏大,80-90年代相反,2000年以后又处于较旱时期,低温受灾比在20世纪90年代初期及21世纪初期反弹增大;R/S分析表明,4种农业气象灾害受灾比的Hurst指数均>0.5,说明未来变化都将与过去一致,其中,风雹受灾比将减弱,干旱受灾比将增加,而洪涝与低温受灾比仍将呈现波动幅度较大的趋势;灰色关联分析结果表明,4种气象灾害对粮食作物平均单产的影响在不同省份表现不同,在辽宁为干旱>风雹>洪涝>低温,而吉林为洪涝>干旱>低温>风雹,黑龙江为干旱>洪涝>低温>风雹,说明干旱和洪涝是影响东北地区粮食生产的主要气象灾害,而低温灾害的影响随着纬度的升高也不断增大。
Based on disaster-affected areas of drought, flood, wind-hail, low temperature, combining with grain yield data in Northeast China from 1971 to 2009, agro-meteorological disasters tendency variation and their impacting on grain yield in Northeast China had been studied in this paper. The tendency variation results showed that, in recent 39 years, only disaster-affected area ratio of wind-hail presented decreasing tendency obviously, while flood, drought and low temperature existed phase characteristics. In 1970s, disaster-affected area ratio of drought was higher than flood, which was on the contrary in 1980 -1990s, and recent period was in relatively dry phase again, in terms of low tem- perature, it began to rebound in early 1990s and early 21st century. R/S analysis showed that Hurst index results of 4 agro-meteorological disasters were more than 0. 5, indicating future tendency variation would be consistent with the past, namely, disaster-affected area ratio of wind-hail would continue to decrease, and drought would maintain the in- crement, while flood and low temperature would present fluctuant trend. Gray correlation analysis indicated that the impaction of agro-meteorological disasters on average grain yield performed differently in different provinces, in Liaon- ing as, drought 〉 wind-hail 〉 flood 〉 low temperature, in Jilin as, flood 〉 drought 〉 low temperature 〉 wind-hail, in Heilongjiang as, drought 〉 flood 〉 low temperature 〉 wind-hail, which revealed drought and flood were major agro-me- teorological disasters during grain production, and the impacts of low temperature was much greater towards the high latitude in Northeast China.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期283-288,共6页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
中英瑞国际合作ACCC项目(ACCC/20100515
ACCC/003)
国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流重大项目(40921140410)
农业部948项目(2011-G9)
关键词
东北地区
农业气象灾害
受灾比
粮食产量
R/S分析
灰色关联分析
Northeast China
Agro-meteorological disasters
Disaster-affected area ratio
Grain yield
R/S analysis
Gray correlation analysis
