摘要
意愿价值评估法(CVM)为具有显著外部性的生态环境服务的价值评估提供可能,但只有经过有效性和可靠性检验的CVM成果才能应用于环境公共政策与治理。本文以CVM评价上海市城市景观内河——漕河泾港的生态恢复的产出,在国内经常采用的线形对数模型基础上,加入二值响应的Logit概率模型对受访者社会经济变量进行回归分析,验证本次CVM应用的理论有效性。回归中首次引入反映我国特殊社会结构的户籍变量、收入差距变量两者的交互项,并纳入间接反映环境问题历史成因的居民沿河居住期变量,以验证调查结果与一般经济理论的相容性和与我国特殊社会构成、经济态势以及环境历史成因的吻合性。以预调查和正式调查为试验—复试样本验证了研究结果的可靠性。结果表明:平均支付意愿是160元/(a.户),改善漕河泾水环境的年经济效益至少在6.1×106元。
The result of Contingent Valuation Method （CVM） can be applied to the environmental public policy-making based on the full testing of validity and reliability. This paper takes CVM as a tool to analyze the economic output of improving the water quality of Caohejing River in Shanghai. Theoretically the validity is to be tested through regressing the willingness to pay （WTP） value and the probability of WTP〉0 against the standard social and economic variables using Log-linear model and Logit probability model for binary response. Huji factor is first introduced to the models the quadratic term of income and the interaction term of income and Huji are also included. The reliability is tested by comparing the result of pre-investigation and formal investigation. Results indicate that average WTP is 160 RMB Yuan per household per year. The annual aggregate benefits is at least 6.1×10^6 RMB Yuan.
出处
《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》
2007年第2期39-44,共6页
Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
上海市教委基金资助项目(CS0333)
