摘要
目的探索预测湖北钉螺分布的敏感温度指标。方法选取上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、江西、湖北、湖南、河北、河南、山东、山西、陕西、四川13个相邻有螺省(市)与无螺省(市)的61个气象站作为研究对象,以北纬34°为界,以北编码为温度不适合钉螺生存的地区,以南编码为温度适合钉螺生存的地区,分别用t检验和logistic回归分析确定影响钉螺分布的敏感温度指标。结果有螺区和无螺区的年极端低气温和年平均温度的t检验结果均显示差异有统计学意义(t=-6.49、-3.93,P均<0.01)。无螺区年极端低气温和年平均温度均低于有螺区,差值分别为6.72℃和3.02℃,年极端低气温的差值约为年平均温度差值的2.23倍;logistic回归分析仅显示年极端低气温对钉螺分布的影响有统计学意义(OR=1.48,P<0.01),年平均温度未进入模型。结论年极端低气温可能是预测湖北钉螺分布的敏感温度指标。
Objective To explore the sensitive temperature index in order to predict the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis. Methods Sixty-one weather stations, distributed in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan provinces （municipality）, were selected as research stations. North latitude 34° was set as the boundary of Oncomelania hupensis＇s distribution. The differences of yearly extreme low temperature and mean temperature in a year between snail areas and no snail areas were tested respectively by using t test to show their respective significance on the prediction of Oncomelania hupensis＇s distribution. Finally, unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine which temperature index had the better effect to predict the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis. Results Both the yearly extreme low temperature and mean temperature in a year had significant effect on the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis under the t test （t =- 6. 49 , P〈0.01; t= -3.93, P〈0. 01）. The differences of the yearly extreme low temperature and mean temperature in a year between snail areas and no snail areas were 6.72 ℃ and 3.02 ℃ respectively, and the degree of their differences was about 2.23 times. The impact of yearly extreme low temperature was more important than that of mean temperature in a year because mean temperature in a year became no longer statistically significant if they were tested simultaneously by using unconditional logistic regression analysis. Conclusion Yearly extreme low temperature may be more sensitive on predicting the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis than mean temperature in a year.
出处
《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2007年第4期289-292,共4页
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目(30590374)
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2006AA02Z402)
关键词
温度
湖北钉螺
分布
血吸虫病
Temperature
Oncomelania hupensis
Distribution
Schistosomiasis
