摘要
重点针对人类活动导致的水文要素变异问题从以下3个方面分析了研究进展:①综述了人类活动水文效应研究的定性和定量2类成果,分析了作为揭示人类活动的水文效应机理的综合驱动因子的研究现状,剖析了人类活动水文效应定量化研究的方法模式;②综述了水文要素时间序列变异特征及变异点位置的识别研究成果,分析了现有的统计识别方法和差异信息熵等新技术、新理论在变异点识别中的应用,简析了目前研究尚不多的水文要素空间变异性研究方法;③描述了分离气候变化和人类活动对流域水文要素影响的2类主要方法:分项调查法和水文模型法,分析了土地利用/覆被变化对水文系统作用的驱动机理模型,综述了农区下垫面变化对水文要素变异的贡献分解方法。通过综述,指出了现有人类活动水文效应、水文要素变异性识别、下垫面变化对水文要素变异的驱动机理等方面的研究不足和问题。提出了未来需要重点加强气候变化与人类活动对水文要素变异驱动机理及贡献分解研究,加强水文要素时空变异特性的诊断,重构水文要素变异环境下洪涝极值等特征量及其重现期的新概念和新定量等。
This paper reviews the research progress of hydrological variability caused by intensive human activities in the following three subjects： ①For the responses of hydrological elements to human activities,presently two kinds of approaches,qualitative and quantitative analysis,have been put forward.The complex driving factors of human activities to hydrological change were revealed,and a series of hydrological models for quantitative analysis of hydrological response to human activities were developed.②Some achievements were found in recognition of changing point for time series of hydrological features by mainly using statistic methods,while some new approaches like difference entropy method were used in recognition of hydrological variability,and spatial variation of hydrological elements studied though this kind of research was just started.③Two kinds of methods,item by item investigation and hydrological modeling,were set up for decomposing the influences of climate change and human activities on hydrological variation.Mechanism and models describing the impact of land use and land cover change（LUCC） on hydrological variations were developed and the contribution of LUCC to hydrological changes in the agricultural areas was studied.Through this review,it was found that there exist some shortcomings in the present research in quantitative analysis of hydrological response to human activities,recognition of hydrological variation,and driving mechanism of LUCC to hydrological changes.Therefore,future research in these aspects should be strengthened.
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第8期800-811,共12页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目"珠江三角洲地区水文要素变异及其水资源响应量化研究"(编号:50839005)资助
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"气候变化条件下洪水频率计算方法研究"(编号:2010CB428405)资助
关键词
人类活动
水文要素
变异
Human activities
Hydrological elements
Variation.
