摘要
利用1974—2003年凤城、宽甸地区地质灾害实地调查资料和同期常规气象资料,分析了丹东北部山区地质构造特点及各类地质灾害发育的一般规律,讨论了强降雨尤其是暴雨对地质灾害发生的影响,在此基础上提取了相关因子,应用多元线性回归方法,建立了丹东地区地质灾害预报方程和丹东市地质灾害气象预警系统。通过2004年汛期的初步试用,证明该系统具有较好的预报能力。
According to the examples of the geologic disasters from 1974 to 2003 and meteorological data in the same periods in Dandong area, the geologic structure features and the general laws of geologic disasters development were analyzed in northeastern Dandong. The effects of heavy rainfall on geologic disasters were discussed, es- pecially rainstorm. In term of correlative factors, the geologic disaster prediction method and its meteorological early-warning system were set up with linear regression analysis, which were first applied to the flood season in 2004. The results indicated that this system was suitable to geologic disaster forecast.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2007年第1期12-16,共5页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
辽宁省气象局"丹东地区地质灾害气象预警指标的研究"项目资助
关键词
地质灾害
降水
气象预警系统
Geologic disaster
Rainfall
Meteorological early-warning system
