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三明市前汛期地质灾害与强降水的关系及其预报 被引量:4

The Relationship Between Geological Hazard During Pre-flood Season with Strong Precipitation and Its Forecast in Sanming
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摘要 对1991—2003年前汛期(3—6月)三明市所属11个县(市)所发生的地质灾害进行了统计分析,揭示了三明市地质灾害的时空分布特征;分析地质灾害与前期降水的关系,发现地质灾害发生数量、规模与持续降水过程、暴雨量等的关系十分密切;三明市地质灾害多发生在前汛期,占全年地质灾害总数的89%,并主要集中在4月下旬至6月中旬(占总数的70%);普查地质灾害发生当日850 hPa、700 hPa、500 hPa和地面等天气图资料,对触发地质灾害发生的强降水进行了天气型分析,得出3—4月地质灾害与冷切适中型、冷切偏西型、低涡冷切适中型、冷切偏南型、低涡冷切偏西型等关系最密切;5—6月地质灾害与冷切适中型、低涡冷切适中型、低涡冷切偏西型、切变偏西型关系最密切,上述天气型对地质灾害的预测具有重要的指示意义。 This paper demonstrates the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of local geological hazard in Sanming city by analyzing statistically the geological hazard data happened in 11 counties subordinate to the city during pre-flood season from 1991 to 2003.The analysis of geological hazard and antecedent precipitation reveals that the number and the scale of geological hazard are closely related to the process of continuous rainfall and amount of precipitation etc.Most of the geological hazard of Sanming occurred in pre-flood season,which account for 89% of the annual total number of geological disasters,and it mainly occurred from late April to mid-June(account for 70% of the total).By collecting statistics of weather map data on the days hazard occurred on 850hPa,700hPa,500hPa and surface,the analysis was made on the weather type of heavy rainfall which trigged geological disaster It is found that the geological hazard is most closely correlated to the types which are cold shear in the middle,cold shear westward,vortex and cold shear in the middle,cold shear southward,vortex and cold shear westward,etc.from March to April,and the types which are cold shear in the middle,vortex and cold shear in the middle,vortex and cold shear westward,and shear westward,etc.from May to June.The work described above has an important indication meaning to forecast geological disaster.
出处 《暴雨灾害》 2011年第2期182-187,共6页 Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金 福建省三明市科技局2010年科技计划项目(2010-S-4)
关键词 前汛期 地质灾害 持续降水 相关性 Pre-flood season Geological hazard Continuous rainfall Relationship
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