摘要
1990年代我国的生育水平究竟是多少，这一直是个谜。本文利用中国一直独立存在的严密而周全的教育统计数据，来估计2000年人口普查中的漏报，最终估计我国1990年代的生育水平。通过教育统计数据对人口普查数据进行调整，重构2000年普查0～9岁人口的年龄性别结构；并将2000年0～9岁人口转换为1991～2000年历年的出生人数，进而估算1990年代我国的生育水平。从推算和估计的结果看，我国1991年生育率达到更替水平，之后进一步下降，低于更替水平。1990年代后期我国的总和生育率在1．7～1．8。
It has been a mystery how high Chinese fertility is in the 1990s. Using education statistics from Ministry of Health, which are independent of statistics from population - related departments, this paper assesses levels and patterns of underreporting in the 2000 census, thus estimating China＇ s fertility in the 1990s. Upon adjustment according to the education statistics, age- sex structure of population aged 0 - 9 of the 2000 census is reconstructed, which is then converted into annual number of births in 1991 - 2000, and fertihty rates in the 1990s are repreduced. Estimates show that China reached replacement fertihty in 1991, and had below- replacement fertihty after that. China＇ s total fertility rate in the late 1990s stood at 1.7 - 1.8.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第1期19-32,共14页
Population Research
