摘要
均衡汇率是判断汇率水平是否失调及汇率政策是否需要调整的主要客观依据。长期自然均衡实际汇率是基本经济因素决定的、保证经济内外均衡和充分就业的实际汇率水平。本文根据自然均衡汇率理论和中国宏观经济特点,提出估计人民币自然均衡实际汇率的结构方程,采用1978—2004年的年度数据,利用全息极大似然法进行系统估计,得出人民币中、长期自然均衡实际汇率,测算出人民币实际汇率失调程度。实证分析结果表明,近几年人民币存在一定程度低估,但汇率失调程度趋向收敛。目前人民币升值压力主要来自金融经济层面。应整合中央银行和外汇管理部门职能,协同利用宏观经济政策,进一步完善人民币汇率市场形成机制。
China＇s recent rapid export growth and accumulation of international reserves have generated considerable interest in modeling the determinants of the Renminbi. Equilibrium real exchange rate is one of the core problems which determine whether the substantial exchange rate level is maladjusted and whether it necessitates the adjustment of exchange rate. This paper employs so called NATREX model suitable to the Chinese economy to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of the Renminbi and the exchange rate misalignment in China by adopting a full-information maximum likelihood system method of estimation, which covers the period from 1978 to 2004. On that basis the author advances some policy-making proposals and supporting measures for further upgrading the Renminbi exchange rate generative mechanism.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第11期92-101,共10页
Economic Research Journal
关键词
人民币
自然均衡实际汇率
系统估计
汇率失调
The Renminbi
Natural Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate
System Method of Estimation
Exchange Rate Misalignment
