摘要
我国正处于经济高速增长、城市化全面展开的重要时期,电力工业的健康发展将为国民经济可持续发展提供有力保障,研究我国电力工业发展趋势是当前重要课题。本文通过研究发达国家电力消费水平的发展规律,为我国发电量与消费的发展研究提供依据,进而指导我国电力工业的发展。本文收集整理了世界上5个发达国家从上世纪初以来的国内生产总值、发电量总量和人口总量等统计数据,深入分析各数据的相关性,将电力工业发展分成四阶段。根据统计数据,预测我国所处的发展阶段和电力工业未来40年的发展规模。并根据低碳发展的需求,提出了2010-2050年电力工业发展分阶段的实施目标,对电力结构进行了预测分析。
China is in an important period of rapid economic growth and massive urbanization.Healthy development of the power industry will provide a strong guarantee for the sustainable development of the national economy and research on development Trend of China＇s power industry is very important and necessary.The article studies the development track of the developed countries＇ power generation to provide some reference for forecasting China＇s future power generation,and then guide the development of China＇s power industry.The statistic data of five developed countries since the beginning of the 20 th century,such as the GDP,the power generation and the population,are collected and analyzed.And the development of the power industry is divided into four stages.According to the data,the present stage and the scale in the next 40 years of China＇s power industry are forecasted.Furthermore,according to the needs of low-carbon development,the development roadmap of China＇s power industry in 2010-2050 is put forward and the future structure of China＇s power industry is forecasted.
出处
《中国能源》
2014年第6期31-35,共5页
Energy of China
关键词
发电量
预测
电力工业
路线图
Power Generation
Forecasting
Power Industry
Roadmap
