摘要
本文阐述了多级判别在地震综合预报中应用的必要性,给出该数学方法的推导过程,并且以云南多震区——滇西南地震区为例进行实际判别计算,在所计算的工6个震例中其拟合预报准确率在80％以上;对1987年11月25日讯沧外.2级地震实际预报取得较好的效果。
This paper illustrates the necessity to apply the multi-grade identification approach in the synthetic prodiction of earthquakes. It also gives the procedures through which the said mathematical approach is derived. The area frequently struck by carthquakes in Yunnan Province, i.e., the southwestern Yunnan seismic, zone, is used as an example in the practical identification calculations. For the 16 sample events used in the calculation, a fitted prediction accuracy of 80% or even better is obtained. The approach had been used in practical prediction of the ML5.2 event occurred Nov. 25, 1987 in Lancang area and fairly good result has been achieved.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第4期329-336,共8页
Journal of Seismological Research
关键词
地震
预报
多级判别
显著性检验
Multi-grade identification
Probabilistic density function
Testification of the extraordinariness
Southwestern Yunnan seismic area
Synthetic prediction
