摘要
基于中国冰川编目资料, 应用冰川系统对气候变化响应的功能模型, 按照几种不同升温率的气候背景, 对全国各大流域冰川径流进行了评估, 并对未来50 a冰川径流的变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明： 1980年全国冰川总径流量615.7×108m^3, 在升温0.02 K·a-^1及0.03 K·a^-1情景下, 2000年比1980年增大7.13%～10.8%, 径流总量增至659.66×108m^3～682.24×108m^3;与此同时, 冰川面积减少1.07%～1.62%, 冰储量也减少1.14%～1.73%.2000-2030年全国冰川径流都将逐步增长, 在2030年左右均达到了最高峰, 径流增率ΔW/W0分别为9.6%及15.0%, 总径流量分别为675.15×108m^3, 和707.91×108m^3.2030年以后, 全国冰川径流均开始从高峰缓慢回落, 但直到2050年分别比初始径流量多8.6%及13.6%.因此, 在2050年以前, 特别是2030年前后是在上述气候情景下充分利用冰川融水的最好时机, 但也是冰川洪水等灾害的多发期.就各流域来说,敏感型区径流高峰出现时间早而径流增率小, 稳定型区则反之.如果出现极端的持续升温, 如升温率为0.05 K·a^-1, 全国冰川径流增率可达26.5%, 到21世纪末回落到1980年水平以下, 而冰川储量损失达57%, 届时中国西部生态环境将急剧恶化.
Functional models of glacier system variation are established, on the basis of the structure of glacier system and the nature of the equilibrium line altitudes at the steady state （ELA0）, using Kotlyakov--Krenkes＇s equation relating annual ablation of glacier and mean summer temperature. The models are applied to study the response of glacial runoff to climatic change. The effect of decreasing air temperature due to rising of ELA0 and reduction of glacial area were taken into account. Based on the data of glacier inventories of China and the models, glacial runoff in China was calculated and possible variation trend of glacial runoff in the future 50 years was evaluated under different temperature rising rates. It is shown that： 1） The total glacial runoff of China was 615.7×108 m^3 in 1980, and was 659.66×108 m^3-682.24×108 m^3 in 2000, 7. 13%-10. 8% more than that in the 1980s, yet the glacial area and volume decreased by 1.07%-1.62% and 1.14%-1.73%, respectively, from 1980 to 2000; 2） The glacial runoff will continuously increase on the average from 2000 to 2030, and reach the maximum, about 675.15×108 m^3-707.91×108m^3, in about 2030, with a rate of 9.6-15.0%; 3） After 2030, the glacial runoff will decrease, but until 2050 the total glacial runoff will be 8. 6-13. 6% more than that in the 1980s on the average. So it is a favorable opportu- nity to utilize the glacial runoff in the years from 2000 to 2050, but it is also the period with high—frequent hazards from glaciers; 4） Under the extremely climate warming scenario, 0.05 K·a^-1, the glacial runoff increasing rate will amount to 26.5% at the runoff climax and the glacial runoff level will be lower than that of the 1980s and 57% of glacial volume will be lost by the end of this century.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第4期457-466,共10页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40371027)
全国水资源综合规划服务项目"中国冰川和积雪及其水资源状况综合分析"资助
关键词
冰川径流
评估
冰川系统
变化预测
glacial runoff
evaluation
glacier system
variation prediction
