摘要
本文利用河南1949～2003年的逐年旱涝灾害成灾面积的统计数据，采用年旱涝成灾面积的相对大小进行了旱涝年型等级划分，分析了旱涝灾害演变的基本特征；同时运用小波分析的方法探讨了旱涝灾害的转折突变特征，结果表明：河南干旱灾害发生的频率与影响高于雨涝灾害，并具有日益严重的趋势；旱、涝阶段的转折突变具有12年左右的周期，下一个旱、涝转折突变点可能出现在2015年左右。
By use of statistic data of drought and waterlogged area in the period from 1949 to 2003, the drought and waterlogging years are classified according to the area that affected by drought and waterlogging. The evolutional characteristics of drought and waterloggings are analyzed. Meanwhile, the characteristics of transitional sudden change of drought and waterlogging disasters are analyzed with the wavelet analysis method. The result indicates that the frequency and influence of arid disasters in Henan is higher than that of rainfall and waterloggings. This tendency becomes more clear. The period of transitional sudden change of drought and waterlogging is about 12 years. The next transitional sudden change of drought and waterlogging will be around 2015,
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2006年第3期93-97,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
河南气象科技计划项目(Z200402)
关键词
旱涝灾害
统计数据
小波分析
演变特征
河南
drought and waterlogging
statistics
wavelet analysis
evolutional characteristics
