摘要
统计分析了清江流域短期定量降水预报不同降水等级下的确率、漏报率和空报率,应用最近邻抽样回归模型对逐日降水预报资料行时段分配,将得到的逐时段降水预报资料与所建清江隔河岩水库洪水预报方案相耦合,发布考虑预见期降水的洪水预报。结果表明,考虑预见期降水可显著提高隔河岩水库的洪水预报精度。
The success hit rate, the point over rate and the false alarm rateof short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting in the Geheyan reservoir basin was calculated and analyzed. A nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive (NNBR)modelwas adopted to estimate the temporal disaggregatingcoefficients of the precipitation forecasts, and the calculated temporal disaggregated precipitationwas coupled with the proposedflood forecasting model. It was shownthat the proposed flood forecasting model coupled with the quantitative precipitation forecasts can increase the flood forecasting precisionfor Geheyan reservoir basin.
出处
《水电能源科学》
2006年第4期31-34,共4页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
定量降水预报
洪水预报
时段分配系数
最近邻抽样回归模型
quantitative precipitation forecasting
flood forecasting
temporal disaggregating coefficients
nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive
