摘要
分析了降雨预报用于水库调度中的必要性和重要性,依据中央气象台1999～2003年全国44个大城市、24小时降雨预报资料及实际日降雨资料进行统计分析,分析有雨、无雨等级预报和各量级降雨预报精度及其经验统计规律,通过适线分析确定分级降雨预报的实际降雨分布规律,以期为各地水库调度提供参考。经分析,无雨预报准确率较高,可用于水库调度中;小雨准确率虽低,但发生小雨以下量级的频率较高,部分信息也可利用。
This paper discusses the necessity and importance of applying precipitation forecasts to reservoir operation, makes statistical analysis of the rainfall forecasting precision in yes/no and grade and the experiential distribution according to the day-precipitation and the 24h precipitation forecast data of 44 cities reported by Central Meteorological Observatory during 1999～2003. Curve fitting analysis is made to determine the distribution law of the different grade precipitation forecasts, so as to give reference for different reservoirs. The analysis result shows that forecasting accuracy for no rain is higher than that for others, which may be applied to reservoir operation.Although the forecasting accuracy for light rain is low, the frequency of light rain and no rain is high. Its information can also be used for reservoir operation.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第3期30-34,共5页
Journal of China Hydrology
关键词
降雨预报
精度分析
水库调度
precipitation forecast
precision analysis
reservoir operation
