摘要
做为一种偏重生态的可持续评估手段，生态足迹方法往往难以全面地反映区域可持续发展能力。不少学者主张将生态足迹指标与其它社会经济指标相结合，以创建复合指标的方法来评估区域生态一经济协调性，从而弥补生态足迹方法的这一不足。不过，该手段忽视了生态足迹指标本身同相关社会经济指标的内在联系。因此，笔者试图对生态足迹的社套经济驱动作用做出相关分析，研究建立了江苏省1995年～2003年的人均生态足迹时间序列作为模型因变量，并根据区域社套经济发展与生态占用变化的作用机理选择了8个社会经济发展相关指标为自变量，建立多元线性回归模型。模型检验结果令人满意，并通过相关性分析、主成分分析等手段揭示了江苏省社会经济发展指标时人均生态足迹的强烈驱动作用。模型结果也从一个侧面说明江苏近年采社会经济发展模式的不可持续性。
The model of ecological footprint provides an estimation of some ecological productive area necessary to sustain the current level of resource consumption for a specific population. It is regarded as a useful indictor for measuring ecological pressure imposed by human being and a most powerful indictor of regional sustainability. As a sustainability index, ecological footprint highlights the maintenance of natural capital exclusively, whereas it overlooks socio-economic sustainability of the regions. However, the limitation of model can be avoided by analyzing eco-economic harmony.
The concept, theory, method and application of ecological footprint model were developed respectively, apart from the analysis of eco-economic harmony. However, previous relative analyses of eco-economic harmony were mostly limited in several given indices such as eco-economic development capacity and ecological footprint per GDP. It was rarely focused on the relationship between ecological footprint and socio-economic indices （e. g. GDP per capita）. In this study, taking Jiangsu province as an example, the authors calculated the time series ecological footprints from 1995 to 2003 and attempted to analyze driving effects from eco-economic indices to ecological footprint.
The authors established a multivariate linear regression model to analyze the relationship between regional ecological appropriation and socio-economic system, regarding per capita ecological footprint as dependent variable and eight correlative socio-economic indices as independent variables. The result of the driving model indicates that socio-economic development is a major driving force for regional ecological appropriation. In addition, the model illustrates unsustainable characteristics of present socio-economic development mode of Jiangsu province.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第1期14-18,共5页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40101007
70373029)
教育部霍英东基金优选项目(编号:94001)
南京市软科学研究计划项目(编号:20050308)
关键词
生态足迹
驱动模型
江苏
Ecological footprint
Driving model
Jiangsu
