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德尔菲法在制定《城镇病媒生物综合管理技术规范》中的应用 被引量:5

Application of Delphi method in the constitution of 《Urban Integrated Vector Management Guidelines》
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摘要 目的为科学、合理制定我国<城镇病媒生物综合管理技术规范>,保证规范的可行性和科学性.方法采用改良的德尔菲专家咨询法,根据WHO病媒生物综合管理框架,总结我国病媒生物综合治理经验,组织专家编制病媒生物综合管理规范初稿,通过两轮专家论证,并形成病媒生物综合管理规范的事件专家函询表,征求全国相关领域30位专家的意见,采用 Access 2000 建立数据库,SPSS 11.5 软件包进行统计分析.结果专家函询表回收率83.3%,对'病媒生物控制方法'和'病媒生物控制组织管理'有关方面指标的评价中,专家的权威系数都在0.80以上,协调系数为0.633 4;所咨询的指标共39个,其算术均数介于7.32~9.00之间,标准差介于0~1.661之间,变异系数值介于0~0.222之间.结论专家对绝大多数问题给予了肯定回答,并有较高的一致性,表明<规范>中所涉及的绝大部分内容的必要性、科学性和可行性得到了全国同行专家的认可. Objective To evaluate and ensure the scientificity and feasibility of the 《Urban Integrated Vector Man- agement Guidelines》. Methods Improved Delphi Method was used to collect the responses from 30 experts in vector control or vector management. The Guideline draft were framed and demonstrated by specialist based on WHO integrated vector mangement framework and national integrated vector control project. After twice consultation, Delphi questionnaires were formed. The data were collected and analyzed by Access 2000 and SPSS 11.5. Results 83.3% experts responded to the questionnaires. On vector control and vector management, the specialist authority coefficients were higher than 0. 80, and coordination coefficient of specialist' s opinion were 0. 633 4. There were 39 indexes in the questionnaires, the mean were among 7. 32-9.00, and the standard deviation and variance coefficients varied from 0. 000 to 1. 661, 0. 000-0. 222 respectively. Conclusion There was consensus among a group of national experts regarding the indexes of Guidelines for integrated vector management which were essential, scientific and feasible.
出处 《中华卫生杀虫药械》 CAS 2005年第5期304-307,共4页 Chinese Journal of Hygienic Insecticides and Equipments
基金 "十.五"国家重大专项项目2002BA906A62
关键词 德尔菲法 病媒生物 综合管理 技术规范 城镇 Delphi method vector integrated management technique guidelines urban area
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参考文献5

  • 1[1]World Health Organization.Global Strategic Framework for Integrated Vector Management[Z].Geneva,WHO/CDS/CPE/PVC/2004,10.
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共引文献33

同被引文献46

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